doi: 10.4304/jsw.6.8.1492-1497
The Dissemination Simulation of Paroxysmal Public Crisis Information Based on Polya Distribution
- School of Business Administration, South China University of Technology Guangzhou, 510640, China
Abstract
From the view of information accumulation, the dissemination of web-based information is essentially the process of increasing the amount of information on the Internet. The dissemination of positive and negative information will always follow the Matthew Effect. In this paper, we simulated the dissemination process of a crisis information using the basic model of Matthew— polya, and explained the uncertainty of dissemination and emergence of Matthew effect with probability distribution model. According to the dissemination phenomena and probability distribution features of positive and negative information, the crisis information dissemination process can be divided into three stages: Sensitive period, developing period and stable period. Through the promotion and improvement of the original model, we illustrated the influence in the final outcome that the speed of information dissemination and the probability of the information being acquired can make. The Government can implement the crisis management by controlling the speed of information dissemination and the probability of the information being acquired.
Keywords
- Paroxysmal
- public
- crisis;
- crisis
- informa
How to Cite
Zhihong Li, Yuehui Chen, Guanggang Zhou, and Xue Bai, "The Dissemination Simulation of Paroxysmal Public Crisis Information Based on Polya Distribution," Journal of Software, vol. 6, no. 8, pp. 1492-1497, 2011. https://doi.org/ 10.4304/jsw.6.8.1492-1497
Copyright & License
Copyright © 2011 by the authors. This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited (CC BY 4.0).