School of Mechanical & Electrical Engineering, Ningbo Dahongying University, Ningbo, Zhejiang

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Abstract—Taking the total volume of import and export trade of Ningbo port in 2004-2011 as the original data, a mathematical model of gray forecasting is established for the total volume of import and export trade of port. The paper predicts the total volume of import and export trade of Ningbo port in 2012-2015 during the 12th Five-Year Plan in accordance with the posterior variance testing. The analysis results indicate that the fitting precision of forecasting model of gray system is satisfactory, offering a good idea for the development and reform of the Ningbo port and the port construction through the sustainable development overall in the future.

Index Terms—Gray forecasting; posterior variance test; foreign trade.

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Cite: Weipeng Zhang, Suqin Zhao, "Forecasting Research on the Total Volume of Import and Export Trade of Ningbo Port by Gray Forecasting Model," Journal of Software vol. 8, no. 2, pp. 466-471, 2013.