Volume 7 Number 6 (Jun. 2012)
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JSW 2012 Vol.7(6): 1242-1249 ISSN: 1796-217X
doi: 10.4304/jsw.7.6.1242-1249

Dynamic Analysis for Geographical Profiling of Serial Cases Based on Bayesian-Time Series

Guanli Huang1 and Guanhua Huang2
1Beijing Vocational College of Electronic Science,Beijing, China
2School of Social Development and Public Police, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China

Abstract—The analysis of spatial information has long been considered valuable for police agency within the criminal investigative process. This is especially true for serial crime cases where criminologists and psychologist apply geographical profiling to model criminal mobility distribution and behavior patterns in order to estimate a criminal’s likely residence. In recent years the availability of advanced computational mathematic tools ensured us to establish some mathematical models to replace traditional empirical method. However, as a new technology, current geographical profiling models are still fundamental and impractical. In this article, based on existing frameworks, we establish three new methodologies, namely, Bayesian— Factor analysis model, Time series analysis model and GIS(Geographic Information System)—Decay model, to study geographical profiling problems. Then, we test and compare their accuracy, efficiency, sensitivity and robust according to 11 historical serial crime samples and Monte Carlo simulations. Finally, we discuss the advantage and disadvantage of each model and provide executive guidelines about how to synthetically apply these models for real cases.

Index Terms—geograiphical profiling, time serises analysis, bayesian analysis, geographic information system


Cite: Guanli Huang and Guanhua Huang, "Dynamic Analysis for Geographical Profiling of Serial Cases Based on Bayesian-Time Series," Journal of Software vol. 7, no. 6, pp. 1242-1249, 2012.

General Information

ISSN: 1796-217X (Online)
Frequency: Monthly
Editor-in-Chief: Prof. Antanas Verikas
Executive Editor: Ms. Yoyo Y. Zhou
Abstracting/ Indexing: DBLP, EBSCO, ProQuest, INSPEC, ULRICH's Periodicals Directory, WorldCat, etc
E-mail: jsw@iap.org
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